Bold Predictions, Sleeper Identification System and Must Drafts

Mike’s Bold Predictions – 3:49

Ed’s Sleeper Identification System – 38:03

Ed’s Must Drafts – 42:18

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Transcript

What's going on fantasy world. My name's Ed got my pal. Mike, I'm here with you, Ed. We're going to, we're going to have some fun tonight well, a little bit of a, I guess, uh, life happened and, and twists of events. Mike was supposed to be here with me in person, my bud, but life had different plans and both my kids ended up with, uh, strep throat.

So. Mike has a big date plan with his family. And my wife is a huge germaphobe and she would kill me, uh, if I would have, uh, went over there at, so I am relegated to my house, you know, [00:01:00] and, and I love her for that because her and I really do bond over that commonality. 

 so we're, we're going to be going through a lot of heat. I mean, things are ramping up today. Towards the next few days for the last days of your fantasy football draft. So the purpose of today's episode is we're just going to give you a bunch of true value.

I mean, right, Mike, we're going to give them the, the, the things that you really need to know at this point to really take your draft to the next level. Um, because and, and, and honestly, even right after the draft, and I mean, we've kind of had some discussions about this Ed, like in our, uh, kind of chat with our, football group, right?

Like what happens after the draft? People want to trade before the first snap. Like what does that look like? No, I'll tell you what happens. Is, uh, teams, like literally people will go on full [00:02:00] tiled after, after week one, every single year. And I, I'm gonna tell you like that is the time. Two pounce. I mean, how many times do we see someone just explode week one and then like, week 2, 3, 4, they're falling off the face of the earth or

they blow up, right? I mean, it's Yeah, there's so I mean, there's so many times that people just week one. They think the sky is falling down. That is the time to like really exploit that. Um, some people, if you have some people in your league that are like really emotional and, and ride with the waves, I'm not going to name any names, but you know, Hey, that is the perfect time, but we're recording this Thursday night.

And me and Mike, we're just talking, this is the last. Thursday night without football. Let's go. Let's go. So Mike, you're going to get us some, [00:03:00] you're going to give us some surprises, bold predictions. I'm going to go through some draft strategy. Um, in terms of players. I will not leave a draft without, I mean, these are my core players outside of your, you know, uh, your, your top 10 pick these players.

I really, really believe in for lots of reasons. So I'm going to give you kind of my train of thought and methodology, um, in a system to actually help you categorize how to pick a sleeper. Um, and, and it's kind of the way my brain works, but, but, um, But Mike, how about you, you kind of kick things off here and give us some, some of Mike's surprises or bold predictions.

Of course, Edwin. Uh, so these, these bold predictions aren't necessarily truth. They're not something that I believe will happen, but you know, in the world of fantasy football in real life, these things could, [00:04:00] in my opinion, could very well happen if things land, right. Such as. Everyone is touting, you know, Puka Nacua.

Uh, they're kind of believing Cooper Kupp is kind of lost a step in everything. And for the record, we touted him. I mean, we loved Puka. We, we touted him probably the most out of any touters out there. I mean, we, we really, we touted the tout out of touting him, man. Oh, for sure. But we touted him before, before, before the season started.

I said, go pick him up last year. Before people were touting, we were touting. So anyway, sorry. Continue. Oh, for sure. Yeah, so I believe, bold prediction number one, not that bold, we're gonna spice things up as we go, but not that bold, but Cooper Kuppp is still going to be outperforming and outproducing Puka Nakua.

Now, in my prediction, in my projections, I actually have them projected the same. Um, [00:05:00] In a full point ptr, it's it's very weird. I don't even understand how that happens and now that i'm looking at it I understand exactly how it happens. I've got Cooper Kupp with five more catches, but I have Uh, Puka Nakua with five more rushes for an extra 25 yards.

So, overall, I've got them in a full point, uh, PPR, um, essentially, actually this, now I'm looking at my projections, it's a half point PPR that I'm looking at, 207 and a half points. Which is about 12. 2 points per game Even but I've I have a bold prediction number one. Not that bold Cooper Kupp outperforms Puka Nacua Well, I can see I know I think you support this tell me some information for me that's a a fair assessment and as a matter of fact Cooper Kupp is He is one of the people that if I can leave a draft with Cooper Kupp Where he's going every single draft.

I'm taking him. And [00:06:00] you know, I think people forget, uh, really what Cooper Kupp did. I mean, let's take a look at the year prior because last year he can't. As a matter of fact, he came back from injury week five last year and he's He had some up and down weeks. I mean, you know, he had some weeks where it was clear that we saw the old Cooper Kupp.

We saw some weeks that it seemed like Puka Nacua took over and, you know, we can take that and evaluate that and say, well, Cooper Kupp is now the number two. But I think there's a world where Cooper Kupp was just getting off of injury. I mean, a pretty devastating injury. Oh, for sure. And And and maybe a that played a part of it, right?

I mean this is really going to be his first season fully healthy from this injury Because he wasn't fully healthy week one. He came in. He was not fully healthy and that that's what came about when uh, Through interviews and [00:07:00] whatnot. He was he did the whole he came back from injury. He still wasn't 100 percent exactly this year He said he feels back to normal back to 100 better than ever and he's going to come back and produce So so That, that was 2023.

 and by the way, Cooper Kupp right now is going early fourth round. so 2022 is, is actually the year he got injured. He got injured in week 10. And prior to him getting injured, he was the number one overall wide receiver. getting on average about 18. 2 fantasy points per game, half PPR.

Which, you know, is, is good enough for, for first overall on points per game. But that's not really fair to say, because he only played in, you know, nine and a half games per se. I think it's safe to say he would have continued his dominance down the track. but up until those games he played, he was a unanimous wide receiver.

One the year [00:08:00] before he was the triple crown winner. I mean, this is the first ever a wide receiver has gotten. Uh, the number one receiving yards, number one receptions, and number one touchdowns all in one year. That's never been done before. And that, that was the year that he really, uh, came to fame. So we're not that far off.

And at the fourth round, people have recency bias. And people have recency bias and they only look at what happened last year. And so I think part done for me, part of, I think part of what people struggle with Mike is they think. Hey, if this person has an injury, they're never going to return back to form, right?

They're never going to be who they used to be. And I think In some cases, that's true, but in a lot of cases, when you have a freak athlete like Cooper Kupp, um, like an Aaron Rodgers, the rehabilitation they go through in their program is so next level that they're truly redefining [00:09:00] the standard of recovery in the NFL.

I mean, just 10, 15 years ago, we're, we're in a completely different place in terms of. Medicine and, and I'm not an expert in any of this. As a matter of fact, I was, I was curious, what, and I typed this into chat GPT. And, and what my question was is how has the recovery time from NFL injuries improved over the years?

Because if we can draw a correlation to like, Hey, you know, in the past X amount of years, or XYZ, we're starting to see improvements. We can really kind of change the tune of how we view injuries, right? From a fantasy perspective, but they talked about like. advancements in, the, the technology itself being able to do, those minimal invasive surgeries, the rehab protocols, the preventative stuff, the nutrition, recovery science, the player monitoring and [00:10:00] load management, and improved concussion protocols.

And, and then your mental health, you know, all of these things, I think over the years, they've really improved dramatically. And it was really interesting, being like, I think chat GPT was spot on with their response. Um, but, but when you've kind of factor that in, maybe we're at a point where when players used to have injuries, like the injury of Cam Akers, when he, where he tore his Achilles, Mike, you tore your Achilles at one point, right?

I did. It was devastating, but yes, I did. I mean, this is something that most people typically don't ever expect to come back from. Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles. Uh, Nick Chubb, his, I mean, no, hold on, hold on. I'm not sure. And I don't think anyone was really sure that Aaron Rodgers actually tore his Achilles.

I think there's speculation that he tore it. I think it might have been ruptured a little bit. I don't quite [00:11:00] think it is torn, but that's just me. Well, and I'm sure a rupture isn't, you know, dramatically better in terms of improvement of recovery time. And I'm assuming it's going to land in somewhere in the career ending spectrum.

And I guess my point is, is in years past, A lot of these players were never expected to return, but, you know, hopefully, I'm, I'm hoping Nick Chubb comes back even stronger. That was such a brutal injury and for the guy to come back just a year later, if he comes back this year, I think that's, I mean, that's going to be incredible.

But, you know, just something that has changed over the years and improved. So a guy like Cooper Kuppp, yeah, he's been injured. A guy like Javonte Williams, he's been injured. But maybe they're improved enough and and and Aaron Rodgers maybe with all of this advancement they could return back to form so I got a double header for you for this next one again Starting to get a little bit more spicier.

We've got [00:12:00] Aaron Jones and And then we've also got Gus Edwards These two returning to form and rushing for over a thousand yards and rushing for ten touchdowns. Again, bold prediction. Maybe happens. I could probably see the 10 touchdowns from Gus Buss. Uh, Aaron Jones is going to take a little bit of extra, uh, oomph to get to that 10 touchdown mark in Minnesota.

But he can definitely do it. Yeah. Um, but those two, I think returning to form, rushing for over 1, 000 yards and 10 touchdowns. Gus Edwards and Aaron Jones. What say you, Ed? Well, I, I do like, you know, the Gus Edwards situation is so interesting because One of the players that that is on my list of people that if I can, I will not leave a draft without his lad McConkie.

Unfortunately, it doesn't happen every time, but if I can, I will grab lad McConkie and specifically because of [00:13:00] the improvements of this entire offense. I mean, Jim Harbaugh, he truly brings out the best in people. And I was talking to someone who's a big Chargers fan and I was telling him, If you think Jim and John aren't talking about, I mean, they're brothers and they just swapped running backs.

Of course he's, you know, Jim already has a leg up if he needed one. So I can guarantee it came with a handbook of this is what worked well with these guys. Um, and, and, and Jim is such a, I don't know if you watch the, uh, Mike, do you watch the documentary,with Connor stallions on Netflix? I just watched that, but it's, I did not Ed it's interesting because first of all, I hate Michigan, but I was really intrigued with, The back story of all of this and it gave me a little bit.

So you hate Michigan, the state, Michigan, the football team, Michigan, the football team. I love the state. [00:14:00] The state is a, it's a beautiful state. I just hate the football team and their fans. but side note, the, the, the whole point is it gave me a little bit of an insight on like Jim Harbaugh and You can't deny the guy's just, he's, he really is a great coach.

So they brought in, a lineman , out of Notre Dame. Joe Alt offensive tackle out of Notre Dame. And by the way, he was the highest offensive lineman coming out of this draft. He was an absolute force for Notre Dame. And, and I watched some of those highlights. Dude, I'm telling you, he is going, he serves on that right side of Herbert.

He's going to give Herbert so much time. every offensive weapon for this Chargers team will be in a completely different stratosphere than, than they were a year ago. Not, not only because of the coach, but because of that addition in itself. my only concern with this backfield is. They say [00:15:00] JK Dobbins is looking true to form, and I love Gus.

Um, as, as you're between the tackles, I think JK is more of your pass catcher. you know, if JK is fully healthy, which again modern medicine, who knows? But if he is fully healthy. He is naturally the more, the more talented running back out of this backfield. I know they have the, Oh, no question, no question at all.

But if you are the coach and this guy has been played by injury every step of the way, there's just no way he's going to shoulder any load. Therefore insert Gus bus, who's going to come in. Run, run, run. Okay, you need to change your pace. JK, get your ass in there. Run, run, run. Hey, JK, we need you. Run, run. I, I just think that Gus is going to lead them in carries, lead them in yardage, uh, and I think he's going to get back to that thousand yards with two hundred [00:16:00] and ten marble.

I can see it. I can see So a little bit more spicier here. How spicy of a dial do you want me to turn it up? Oh, turn it up, baby. Let's get that heat going. Oh, shoot me to give you a good one here. And this might get your britches going, okay? Oh. Leading the Rams in rushing touchdowns, Blake Corum.

Yeah, that's, that's spicy. Okay. I know you don't, I know you don't like it and I know you don't believe it, but there is a, uh, a world where that definitely takes happen, takes place. Well, no, that means that comes to fruition. So rephrase, rephrase that again. Say that one more time. He's going to lead who in touches.

Blake Corum will lead the Rams in rushing touchdown. rushing touchdowns. I mean, let's face it. If Kyren gets hurt again, that's almost a guarantee. if Kyren misses significant time, yeah, Blake Corum, he's, he's a [00:17:00] rookie coming out of Michigan. Great running back showed great abilities. Um, I think he started to come on after they Figured out how to read the other team's signals, but we'll see how that translates in the NFL and, and he's showing up pretty well in preseason, but, uh, I, it could happen.

It could happen. It's a spicy pick. I hope it doesn't because I have Kyren and I love Kyren but it, you know, and anything can happen. Yeah. So here's, here's a two for again, Kyle Pitts finishes as tight end one while Sam LaPorta misses finishing as a top five tight end wow. See, I. I, I want the Kyle Pitts thing to happen, not, not true to form, not truth, not truth at all.

But if you look at how Sam LaPorta got there, it was through touchdowns and extreme, and I'm talking about high level, extreme [00:18:00] efficiency touchdown. So he, he's going to have to do some, probably some negative regression back to the mean of a normal. Amount of efficiency and amount of touchdowns that one can assume he's not, you know, yes, Travis Kelce's, uh, kind of a one off, but Sam Laporta, it's his second year, he's going to come down to earth, in my opinion, I don't know how far he'll go down, but in this bold prediction, he falls outside the top five, while Kyle Pitts takes over the top five.

Tight End one with pairing him up with Kirk Cousins. Yeah. I mean, I, the, I think the first thing I'll say is I do want the Kyle Pitts thing to happen for crying out loud. The guy is just extremely talented. If you, if that Kirk Cousins connection is what, you know, we think it is the, the DTF clan [00:19:00] is in on Kyle Pitts this year.

I want the world to know that I believe in this. Yeah. Um, and I want this to happen and I think it's going to happen, but man, if it happens, geez, this entire offense is, is just going to explode. And I hope it doesn't happen week one, because week one is against the Steelers. It's the Steelers secondary is very good.

Our gap is going to be where Kyle Pitts excels. So we'll see, it's going to be an interesting game. Uh, I would start Kyle Pitts though, uh, for the record, the, uh, Drake London, I would, I would, uh, perhaps. Second guess, but definitely Kyle Pitts. Sam LaPorta though, I think the way he falls out of the top five, it has to be because he's catching less touchdowns because, uh, his efficiency was, uh, so he averaged 10.3 yards per reception last year. And that was, I mean, that, that really wasn't. In the elite category [00:20:00] because you had Mark Andrews that was at 12. 1. Um, you had a couple other in George Kittles at 15. So, you know, it, it's going to have to come from a regression in touchdowns. And, I don't know.I have my own thoughts about that offense.

I think Amon-Ra is going to be drafted in the top five next year, for sure. He's going to have a great year. Uh, I'm a big fan of David Montgomery. I love me some David Montgomery. And then I think Gibbs is going to perform well, just to not, perhaps not to everyone's expectations. Um, and I think Sam LaPorta is going to repeat.

I think he's going to have a great year. So that's just my take, Don't, I don't disagree with a lot of that. no, I just, again, uh, these, these kind of bold predictions are actually been too bold yet, but I'll get to my boldest one.

Well, there are three left. They're bold predictions. You're meant to, and you know, [00:21:00] there's, there's, it's not meant to be likely that it's going to happen. It's meant to be something that could happen. But it's far fetched but boy if it happens and you hedge your bet there you're you're getting paid so here's Something on Ja'Marr chase I believe, in this bold prediction world, that he finishes outside top 12 wide receivers.

Not only because he still hasn't recorded and actually practiced a practice. Yeah, I think he went through one walkthrough or practice once, but the dude's back in street clothes. I think he pretty much got irked off at his coach, who basically said, oh yeah, you know, I'm pretty sure Ja'Marr Chase can, you know, play week one.

And Ja'Marr Chase said, you think you're in charge? Watch this, I'll just show up in street clothes tomorrow and they'll just laugh at you. And that's what happened. So, uh, again, last year, I, I basically said that Josh Jacobs was not [00:22:00] going to, you know, be a huge high producer. Um, he did end up going north of 500 rushing yards, and he got just over 600.

Um, again, it, coming to, to, to practice this late, Um, it just, it, it spells bad math. Well, you can't duplicate that NFL on NFL level contact. I mean, you can go to, you can hire a trainer and, and, and do whatever fancy workouts you want to do, but unless you have a 270 pound lineman, uh, coming at you or, you know, whoever, whatever it is.

It's hard to replicate man. So you're not practicing with those muscles, the, the muscles that you would in, in, in extreme, like fight or flight situations in the NFL that I'm assuming they probably, uh, comes natural to them, but you know, uh, it's, it's different. [00:23:00] Yeah. But, uh, no, I just think that there's definitely a huge possibility, but on the flip side of that, leading the league in receptions, perk up your ears.

Marvin Harrison, Jr...... Oh, lead the league in receptions as a bold prediction. I hope that happens. I love this guy, man. Yeah. If you just look at that offense, Kyler is poised to have a wonderful year, his dual threat to run his way to extend, extend the play. And then if Marvin Harrison Jr..... Is anything like Marvin Harrison senior, let me tell you from a Colts perspective, you're in for a treat Cardinals fans because this, the Harrison family can probably get open.

So I'm, I'm looking at this guy. I mean, I've got him projected for 95 receptions. But there's a world where he gets 125 130. Oh, I believe it. I mean Cardinals [00:24:00] need a receiver and Marvin Harrison Jr..... Is that receiver on top of their esteemed tight end Trey McBride. Um, I think he's going to have a pretty good year, but, uh, in this bold prediction, Marvin Harrison Jr......

leads the league in receptions. Love that. I love that. So, my last, my last bold prediction for you, okay, and I've, uh, teased you this one before and I didn't, I didn't give it away yet, Ed, but I don't think it's going to come as a shock to you that I'm going to predict, that I'm going to bold predict this.

Okay. Okay. This, this wide receiver right now, I just looked it up going at wide receiver, 50 five, zero, you can get them in the 13th round and he will finish as a top 24 wide receiver and the bills. Number one, right? Receiver. And that guy is none other than Khalil Shakir. I figured that one was coming. So just a stat line last [00:25:00] year, he, he was about 45 for about 650 and I think four touchdowns somewhere around there in order to get to that wide receiver 24, he has to almost double his production, get 90 receptions, a thousand yards and seven touchdowns.

That is very doable knowing how many receptions and touchdowns, uh, were left on the table with the, with the departure of. Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis, and I have been riding this clear secure train all, all, all, all season, um, all, all season, I guess, but, uh, this one I think is a very bold prediction, especially the finish of the top 24 wide receiver, but I, I, in a world, I, I think that this could definitely happen.

I mean, right now I've got him projected at wide receiver 35. Right in the middle of Chris Godwin and Diontae Johnson. Um, [00:26:00] and with 75, 75 receptions, 900 yards, and 6 tuddies. So I think, you know, an extra 15 more, 15 more catches, 100 more yards and a touchdown is doable. it's just pretty much doubling what he did last year.

Yeah. So, well, he's, he's, I think he's, he's poised for it. He is poised for it. He's entering his third year in the NFL. He got drafted by Buffalo, uh, in, in 22 played for them. And you see an increase year has compared from his first year to his second year. First year he had, uh, played in 14 games, targeted 20 times, 10 receptions, 161 yards, uh, pretty terrible season.

I'd say, season two last year. He. Had 45 targets, 39 receptions, and a couple of touchdowns, 600 yards. Uh, I think this is pretty much anyone's, wide [00:27:00] receiver one for the taking. I could see Khalil Shakir. He, he does have a lot of impressive, like North and South abilities.

Um, but he is going to be, uh, competing with Keon Coleman and, and Curtis Samuel, who is a monster in the slot. I think Curtis Samuel is going to be really good for this offense as well. But, um, but yeah, I, I like it, Mike, I, I kind of figured you were going there, but I didn't know for sure. I do know you love that.

 I got two bonus ones for you. Christian McCaffrey to finish outside the top five running backs and none other than Derrick Henry leading the league in rushing touchdowns.

Hmm. Well, I could see both happening. Christian McCaffrey, if, if he has any, and the only reason I can see Christian McCaffrey falling out of the top five is if he misses games, if he doesn't miss games with Aiyuk back, yeah, he's going to come back slow, but this offense for me is, this [00:28:00] is with Aiyuk now back it's on repeat.

I mean, it's, uh, what we saw last year, Christian McCaffrey has some relief, but. He's going to take like every, he's going to play 98 percent of the snaps. I think now he has, he has less relief than he did last year with the, uh, Elijah Mitchell news of going on IR. they do have a promising rookie running back that they, uh, do like.

It's a very odd name and I do not remember off the top of my head, but, uh, I wouldn't be surprised if they start, um, pushing him and getting him a couple of carries now and then. Um, just to kind of give him some real NFL work, but I, I do not see, uh, I do not see Christian McCaffrey going, uh, aligning with what he did last year with that many touches over 350 regular season touches, 450 overall last season total with the playoffs.

I just don't see Christian McCaffrey repeating [00:29:00] because I don't think his body can uphold two seasons like that in a row. Um, I think he's going to, he's going to miss some time. Um, and then along with Derek Henry, again, I, I touted this, I don't know. Uh, one of our last episodes, uh, Gus Edwards ended the season last year with 13 rushing touchdowns.

And you're telling me that Derek Henry is not as good as Gus Edwards. I would call BS and say, Derek Henry should get more than 13 rushing touchdowns because the Ravens understand who the Ravens are. And I think it was eye opening in the playoffs and why they lost. They got away from who they were. They started, hey, let's just throw the ball.

Let's just throw the ball. Let's just throw the ball. You are the Ravens. You run the ball. That's what you do. And that's why they went out and got Derek Henry. And that's what they're going to do. And I, I've got him projected at 1500 yards and 15 touchdowns. So I, I've [00:30:00] got him up in my running back six, just outside the five.

 and he's actually my 11th, uh, player off the board overall. So, so with 15 touchdowns, you have strong on Henry with 15 touchdowns. You have them as your RB six, huh? Wow. I'd like to see what your rest of the rest of your running backs are looking like. Um, you know, I, well, you gotta think Derek, Derek Henry doesn't do a lot in the passing game.

So that's where a lot of these other running backs gain ground on him like Jonathan Taylor you know, he's probably gonna get almost 40 receptions and 30 300 yards of Receiving along with a couple touchdowns probably along with I've got him actually projected the lead that the league in rushing. And I know I'm not alone in that.

Uh, I've got him projected for 1600 yards. I think he can go over that. I got him another 13 touchdowns. So rushing touchdowns though, specifically, I do have [00:31:00] Derek Henry projected for the most, and I think it's, I think it's bold because I don't, I don't know that many people that believe that Derek Henry is going to lead the league in rushing.

No. And I'm, I'm one of those. I. I could see a world where that does happen. I just think that the Ravens need to get back to who they are. I mean, you know, they, they just can't win the games that truly matter in the playoffs. That's, that's their issue right now. And I don't know if Derek Henry is the answer.

I think they've always been fairly efficient in the running game. Uh, Derek Henry, could he be the Derek Henry of old and break records? And yeah, he could, but I think it's a slow decline. Like we've seen in, for example, Dalvin cook. I mean, you know, I don't know if Dalvin Cook will ever get back to who he was.

And, and, you know, Gus Edwards, he's much younger than Derek Henry. Uh, so I, you know, I don't know. I tend to. [00:32:00] see a world where Lamar Jackson runs in more touchdowns and uses, you They love Mark Andrews in you're right. I mean 13 touchdowns that's a heck of a lot I just think that in my opinion, they're not gaining anything extravagant with, with Derrick Henry comparatively, but Hey, we'll see.

And I hope they don't as a Steelers fan, but I love those predictions, Mike, because that's the, that's the whole point of those is they're supposed to not be what everyone else thinks they're, they're supposed to be bold. And frankly, you going away from the masses, that's how you. I mean, that's how you really create an edge.

And if you get good enough at this. That's how you start stacking up some championships. And so, you know, we all have differing opinions. I think we, what we can agree on something here, Mike, I think we can confidently say that next year's [00:33:00] fantasy football top 10 in the draft, like the, the top 10 people going in next year's fantasy football draft, they will not be the same as this year's correct.

No, no. Like there's going to be, probably not, there's going to be new people in there. There's going to be people that a lot of them might stay, right? I mean, I could see a Christian McCaffrey and a couple other staying in that top 10, but there's going to be some that are different and maybe they're from different teams.

And I'm confident in saying that there will be at least one new team represented in the top 10, uh, for your fantasy football picks. But the whole point here. Is when you go into a draft, the whole point is to minimize your risk and maximize your reward. Now this you calculate this from the price you pay to acquire each of your players and that price is your way where you draft them.

 So if I'm drafting and, [00:34:00] and let's say I want to draft someone, I feel the most confident in for whatever reason, I might be extremely confident in this person. I want to draft them as late as I can. That's the goal, right?

I mean, the first round is pretty much chalk. We know who's typically going in the first round. You should know. And by the way, if they don't, like if CeeDee falls to Number eight, bro. Don't even think smash that button. I mean, really smash it. The certain players should not fall out of the top 10. You know, those people in your league every year that select Patrick Mahomes in the first round, take advantage of that.

But the second round is really where the decisions start to be made. And. The question that you want to ask yourself is, how do you want to structure your team? Uh, you know, if you went running back or wide receiver in the first round, do you want to double up and have a top wide receiver core or a top running back core in your league?[00:35:00] 

Cause you could, I mean, you know, some people, Mike likes to go heavy wide receivers typically. Uh, last year he went last year. I usually, uh, like to get me at least once running back, but last year you are in our draft. You all let four wide receivers fall to me. My first four picks, I was like, well, I don't know how else I can turn away from this.

It's too good of value. I had to get them and it was better value than any of those running back. And that's a good example. You know, you have a strategy, but don't be afraid to pivot if the situation changes, because it will change. But the second round and on is where you start making decisions on how you want to structure your team.

And so it depends on what you What you prefer. Do you want to double up on a position and have one of the best in the league or do you want to spread out the love and diversify a little bit and spread the goodness? It depends on your preference. but that's essentially what I'm here to talk to you about.

And I'm going to give you a few [00:36:00] players that I try to leave every draft with because I truly believe in what they're doing. Some have more risk than others. but based on where they're being drafted, I'm willing to take that risk. So let's say you really want to draft someone that's going in like the seventh round.

Let's say it's a wide receiver. Uh, and you, so you basically know that round seven, You're definitely getting wide receiver plan. A is this guy, but you want to get a plan B in case that guy's taken and preferably you want to pick those that you really do like. So you really like, um, you really like a player in the seventh round andso now what that means is you can use an earlier pick on like a running back.

Well, if you run, if you went running back round one and then wide receiver round two, Maybe you go wide receiver round three, then round four, running back, then round five, you pick [00:37:00] up a QB and then round six, you can get a pretty decent tight end and then you got your wide receiver that you really believe in, in round seven.

And you know, I'm not, by the way, I'm not saying this is how you should build your team. This is just an example. So just really start identifying players you really believe in. Where are they getting drafted at? And then work your way backwards from there because the first one or two rounds, you should have a pretty good idea of, of who you're going to get.

Um, but have a plan and be able to pivot. And, and what I like to do is I like to pick people that have a safe floor, but their upside is so good. Like, you know, there's a good chance that they might, they might take that next leap and if they take that next leap. You didn't pay much for them. You got them in later rounds, which meant you could have gotten surefire top players in the first few rounds.

And then you got a guy that reaches that top 10 level in later rounds. And now you have a [00:38:00] team that, that really takes you far. And, and I like to break out offenses and I, I kind of developed a little bit of a strategy. And how I look at this, but I break out offenses into offenses that I know are top offenses.

And then the other categories may be an offense on the rise. And then the third category, uh, are you have the pieces to make a rise as an offense, but there's still some questions that affects our levels of confidence. So, the top offenses like Miami's 49ers, the Lions, Chiefs, I put the Texans, the Cowboys, and the Eagles all as top offenses that are established.

We know they're top offenses. Then offenses on the rise, I put the Chargers, the Broncos, the Cardinals, the Rams, the Jets, the Packers, the Falcons, the Bengals. I'm confident those offenses will be rising this year. [00:39:00] some that have all of the pieces, but there's still some question marks. Uh, the, the Colts, I have the Commanders, the Bears, the Seahawks, the Vikings, and the Jags.

So those are just some examples of how I like to break out in terms of, uh, where these offenses lie and those, those categories. What's interesting, Mike, is I, I was just kind of putting this together and I'm thinking, what is the likelihood? Of an off a player from a top offense being drafted in the first round, or what are the chances of an offense that's on the rise being drafted in the top 10?

And then the same with those that have all the pieces together, just haven't reached it yet. And I broke out the first top 10 picks of our draft or most drafts and the top offenses. 50 percent of the people were drafted from the top offense. 30 [00:40:00] percent of the people were drafted from one of the offenses on the rise.

And then 20 percent of the people were drafted from offenses that have all the right pieces. They just haven't taken that next step. And those were kind of based on the categories and the teams I just mentioned. And I think it's a really good example of, listen, if you want to invest in a top offense, there's a good chance they're going to hit, but it's going to cost you more.

It's going to cost you less though, to identify an offense on the rise. But a pretty decent chance of hitting and so if I identify an offense on the rise I'm looking at the Chargers the Broncos the Cardinals the Rams the Jets the Packers the Falcons and the Bengals This this is your sweet spot right now for fantasy in my opinion This is where you're going to get your gold because these the players on these teams.

They don't really cost a whole lot [00:41:00] excluding, you know the the Jets with Breece Hall and then Cincinnati with, with Ja'Marr chase and then the Falcons with Bijan outside of that, these offenses, the, the players in these offenses, they're pretty cheap. I mean, you can get a, a Javonte Williams right now, pretty relatively cheap.

And I, and as a matter of fact, he's one of the people right now that. I don't want to leave a draft without I really believe Javonte Williams is going to have a huge bounce back year. Uh, I think Bo Nix is going to surprise a lot of people and Javonte is going to finally start reaching his potential. I, I think this is going to be a year for, uh, Javonte breaking out, but.

Watch out for Audrick Estime. He looked great in preseason. And this is the same thing. This is what I look for in preseason games. I want to, I want to see an explosive rookie. He [00:42:00] is it. So, uh, there's a world that if Javonte goes down or misses time, Estime could take this over quickly. He's not even being picked up in fantasy leagues right now.

But someone I would definitely pick up. so that's just kind of my methodology. some of the, some of the players on those offenses, we talked about Cooper Kupp, big Cooper Kupp fan. I also love Ladd McConkey. He's going in the 13th round in Yahoo. The chargers, uh, are really investing in this offense.

And I just think that I really believe that the Chargers are going to make a huge step up. Uh, I love Tank Dell I love Tank Dell. I'm not worried about Stefan Diggs. I'm not worried about all of the pieces and, and you know, there's going to be some volatility here. I'm not saying he's going to be a plug and play wide receiver one or maybe not even two, but his ceiling is so high that if you have a wide receiver three or flex spot, [00:43:00] that's not even a question.

I would slide him in there all day I just, just because of his Tank Dell can get so much separation and C. J. Stroud has a cannon, dude. I mean, there's going to be games that Tank Dell will go off and will be in the top five of the wide receivers for the week. I mean, there's just no doubt about it. He's that good.

Um, and, and Stefan Diggs coming to town. I mean, listen, he's a drama queen and I'm hoping that That, you know, that's been established that, Hey, Nico Collins or whoever is the number one, you're, but this is the supporting cast. That's how the situation should read. Um, I hope that Stefan Diggs has accepted that, but, uh, time will tell.

And then the other person I just love, and I don't want to leave a draft without is Rashee Rice. Um, I love Rashee Rice, uh, here recently, the NFL, and I kind of predicted this. I knew this was coming, uh, I released a video earlier. My top five wide receiver sleepers, [00:44:00] Rashee Rice came in a number one.

He, I love this guy from, uh, just an overall potential standpoint, but his legal issues were looming. I didn't think they were going to come down this year and there was just a report that came out that pretty much confirmed that, uh, when, and if the NFL hands down a suspension, it's not going to happen this season, it'll happen next season.

Uh, and, and he's really, I mean, the way he's even handled that whole situation. Seems to be really respectable and he seems to have a good head on his shoulder. So I don't think you know, I, I don't see that as being any kind of an impact or concern, but that's the, that's the last person I have as, people that I do not want to leave my draft without, if at all possible.

And then I did already talk about David Montgomery. So, uh, that's what I got, Mike. What do you think? I, I don't, I don't hate those. Um, I know, you know, we don't always, we're not going to see eye to eye. Um, uh, to add to some of the things [00:45:00] that, you know, for draft prep and making sure that, you know, you're aware of is, I can't stress enough, um, when we're talking about, you know, Drafting and projections and all this stuff, you have to know your league settings and rules before you adopt an ADP, before you adopt a projection.

Solely because out there I'm in, I'm in a league, uh, specifically, I just drafted last weekend that gives a bonus points to tight ends. When they hit 75 yards, I am firmly believing that Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram are going to be hitting that a lot, uh, Travis Kelce as well, Dalton Kincaid's going to hit that a few times for sure, um, and a few others, but I can put one of those tight ends in my flex and where I'm drafting those flexes and [00:46:00] those tight ends, they, that might be better To draft that tight end and then where i'm at in the rankings for wide receivers or running backs because Uh, I can I can assume that i'm going to get 13 14 points a week from kyle pitts or Evan Engram And I can put them in my flex or I can end up going and getting a Courtland Sutton that I might hope To get 10 out of Or go and get a, you know, a, I don't know, a backup running back of some kind, but I chose to go ahead and double down on my tight ends because ultimately there's true value there.

And then, and then, you know, indirectly, it affects my opponents because in my head, there's only about 10 tight ends. I've got two of them. So that means there's only eight more out there for the other 11 teams. I'm okay with that, especially knowing that there's another team out there that did the same thing [00:47:00] I did, they picked up two tight ends.

So know your rules and scoring, because that's going to really. Hammer home who you should be drafting. Yeah, supply and demand man. Half point PPR full point PPR or sole Old school standard league where there's no points for a reception or I'm in another league that gives you a 0.25 a fourth of a point for every Completion a quarterback does along with a two and a half points for every reception a tight end yet So there is so much ambiguity out there ed That Everyone needs to do their homework on what their league values, where they should, where they should value and need to value these players and positions.

Because again, there's, there's projections out there that have, you know, three running backs going in the [00:48:00] top 10, top 12 even sometimes, but, you know, you've got Jonathan Taylor, you've got Saquon Barkley, and ultimately, In my top 10, I've got five wide receivers and five, five running backs. Was that meant to be?

No, it's just when I did my projections. And I attributed the point values that my leagues have that's where they ended up So it's not a cookie cutter thing for every single league and I just want to drive that point home Yeah, no, I agree You know when you're talking about those those players that you do not want to leave the draft without some of those rules And some of the scoring mechanisms are going to dictate that to be quite honest.

It'll dictate it. You know, I don't know if it would depends on the structure and the point system, right? Like, cause there's a chance where it could drastically affect your rankings more times than not. It [00:49:00] might be perhaps a tiebreaker if things are even if you have a guy that might get more receptions than the other.

And this is half. PPR versus a standard or or full PPR, uh, that half a point, the guy's averaging a couple more receptions game. That's going to tip the scales for me. But, uh, other than that, I mean, you know, typically, uh, I'm not going to do anything different. Drastic. Now, if I have, like if I, if I'm in a league that has a three wide receiver, like in our league we have three, we start three wide receivers along with the flex.

So there's an opportunity to start four wide receivers depending on your structure, your team build and your preferences. But our wide receivers in our league, they're at a little more of a premium because we start more than them. Or some leagues, you're allowed to start two quarterbacks and a Superflex.

Well, you're going to have a quarterback go way earlier in those leagues because you can start two of them. I [00:50:00] mean, quarterbacks are like gold in those leagues, so you're going to definitely be switching up your rankings in that league as well as the leagues that Mike talked about. Um, if you have a guy that, uh, can easily catch 75 yards and you get a bonus.

Maybe that's the tie breaker between five and six, uh, where you're picking, but, but no, man, great points. Appreciate the insight. And, you know, there's, there's a lot more that goes into this as we start peeling back the layers. So, uh, hit us up. I mean, that's what we're, this is what we do. We are the pros, uh, well, self proclaimed professionals, right Mike?

Yeah, I mean i'm the pro daddy. Oh, you know, we're gonna try to give you some legitimacy for your fantasy Football that is right. That's right. And and You know, it's got a It has a good ring to it. But I mean no, but but one more one more point just from a full point ppr To a [00:51:00] standard league, Tyreek Hill, in my mind, you know, and you and I both, PPR, he is 1. 1 for us, right? For sure. So, when we go down to a, right, when we go down to a, uh, Uh, standard league, no point per reception. He, honestly, he falls in the rankings for me, uh, all the way down to sixth overall. The first five are running backs for, for good reason, because of how you score the points. So it's, it is very important to ensure that you're looking at the league settings and scoring.

Because you do not want to be coming in there unprepared and realizing at the last second that you need to get two quarterbacks because you're in a superplex league and you only need to start no tight ends because there's four flexes or some weird stuff going on with the roster makeup. [00:52:00] You just need to understand the roster makeup and how you score points.

That's how you win the game. Yeah. Well, in four more points for sure. I don't know though, like what ranking you're using. I would still like for sure. Take Tyreke Hill and whatever system you, I, you know, whatever store scoring format you're referencing. For me, there's just very few guys that I don't care.

Like what format, what. they're just that good. Like almost, so 1800 touch or 1800 yards, 13 touchdowns. I'm, you know, throw any format at the guy. I'm still drafting him, but outside of that, I do agree. They could change a lot. I mean, it could for, depending on the scoring format and. Uh, and, and everything else, but, uh, but yeah, Hey, good, good luck at Mike.

So no, I'm I feel comfort and [00:53:00] comfortable and you know, I'm hoping everyone goes out there and kills the the leagues now Don't take away a lot of the a lot of talent from the draft grades that Yahoo or yeah Don't worry about those guys.

There's a bunch of Yahoo's last year. I got a C ended up winning the league It's not about how you draft It's about how you use the roster, okay? It's not necessarily all about, you know, top in heavy, heavy hitters. It's not about, you know, cause those projects, those projections and those grades are going up.

Uh, it's basically how well you agree with CBS rankings or how well you agree with the Yahoo rankings and whatnot, whatever your league is. So take away the draft grades very little. I was happy to walk away this year with it a little bit lower of a grade, but that's fine. And then I laughed at the people, you know, that they, they said got an a plus and it's fine because they're, their bench is pretty weak [00:54:00] and this, that, and the other.

And you know, they're, they're happy. They got certain players and it's hilarious. From personal experience or anything, just hypothetically, right. In case, right, right. Yeah. So hypothetically, it just, it, it, it is. It's humorous. And then here's another piece here, guys. When the draft is done, the value of your picks, the value of your team, is not the draft grade anymore.

And Ed, I know we can go round and round on this because we kind of did earlier today, but in all reality, I think you kind of did agree with me. After the draft, before the season, certain movements happen, certain injuries happen, uh, you, everyone drafts a team that they still need something most likely.

Unless you were drafting with your bunch of yahoos and you got to get every single one of your top picks, cool. But us that are [00:55:00] in big boy leagues, With people that know what they're kind of doing. You're not going to walk away going every single Roster spot is perfect. So when you go to trade I might have You know five running backs and you might have five wide receivers.

I would be more than willing to give up a Mid round running back for a, you know, a little bit lesser wide receiver, just because I need that depth. I need that wide receiver three or flex or however I want to make up my team moving forward. There's just different values after the draft. So just to make sure that the people listening, we give them some clarity there, we, we had a look, we get into some really stupid debates and arguments in our, uh, text message group and.

Like, and we have our whole league in there. So there's like legitimately days where people aren't at their phones. Of course, every conversation on [00:56:00] everyone's phone, I'm sure is muted. Uh, but they've come, they've come back to like hundreds of messages of unread messages. Uh, so, but the argument, the argument was.

Mike saying that once you draft your team, once the draft is over the values for those people, when you use, when you use that value in terms of trades, those values are different. They're no longer the values that were established during the trade. It's dynamic. People get injured. People move the other kind of the argument that the other counter argument from the other party was that that.

No, we have no games that have been played. There's no changing in rankings. Nothing's happened. It's the same. This is it. That's how we value them. And, and, uh, Mike and both of your defense, I actually agreed with both of, of cause there's a world where both are true and it depends on. [00:57:00] Like no, but it is the truth I Personally am willing to pay more for Tyreek Hill I will pay more than the ADP is telling me I should pay right?

That's me Other people, the, the CeeDee Lamb owner is not going to pay the same price. I'm going to pay. They're willing to pay more because they believe in the, you know, I'm willing to pay more because I believe in the player. They don't need to, they have another top number one, right? So we value the same person differently because our needs are different.

Uh, he's going to want, if he's going to do that trade, he wants to do it at. The trade value, which that's, you know, it's kind of a bad example because then he'd be trading CeeDee lamb for, for Tyree Hill. And, you know, what's the, really the purpose, but,that's the only way he's doing that trade. He's not going to throw in another wide receiver for that person.

 Najee Harris. I was a little higher on than than [00:58:00] before than I am now. We just lost our, our best offensive lineman, Isaac Seumalo from Philadelphia.

He was the most veteran lineman we had and he went down. I don't know how long he's going to be out, but, uh, I can tell you that's going to drastically impact a lot of things, especially when you have two quarterbacks that were literally, uh, tied for, uh, well, not tied, but we're dead last in the amount of times they got sacked.

I mean, out of all quarterbacks in the league. Both of those guys were dead last. Coming into an offensive line that was already questionable. We just lost our best offensive lineman. Najee Harris is going to have a little more of a difficult time with, with reaching my previous hopes and projections as a top 15 or 12 running back, whatever I said he was.

Uh, if we get, if we get him back and get the offensive line back, well, Hey, that's a little more plausible, but you know, so things like that, I just kind of keep in mind because sometimes. [00:59:00] Well, most of the time ADP does not reflect what's happening in real time. So the, the computer system might say Najee's going in the sixth round, fifth round, but people aren't drafting him until the seventh round.

So keep an eye on those things cause they can't fluctuate. Yeah. So, I mean, the premise was essentially that once you draft, you can't say, Oh, My guy I drafted him third over I drafted him third round. I don't care where and when you drafted him but the need that you have now is obviously not the same need you had when you drafted him third overall because he was your second wide receiver and Maybe you didn't draft that wide receiver until around 10 11 and you had nobody behind him and you'd be willing maybe to take get rid of a uh A wide receiver two so you can get Maybe two wide receiver threes that are way better than you [01:00:00] know, what you have on your bench So I I digress but either way Don't don't value solely based on draft capital, um, you then re you need to reset the The process reset the values to now.

I have a full team Now, what do I value my players at? Because it's going to be different. Love it. Hey, good luck in your drafts. We'll talk to you here soon. Continue hitting us up on our social medias, please. You can find us on Facebook at Dad's Talk Fantasy Football. You can also subscribe to this podcast anywhere you listen to podcasts and you can also send us a message on Facebook or send us an email and you can find our email right below in the description.

But, uh, Hey, good luck in your drafts. We will talk to you soon until then. Good luck. So next time y'all have a good one

[01:01:00] Thank you for listening to dad's talk fantasy podcast.